This entire debate may have begun with this statement. Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel observed that “the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.” In everyday language, we have come to understand that if the capacity of semiconductors increase, the speed and power increases. When David House became chairman of Intel, he said that the semiconductor (or chips) performance would double every 18 months.
Most of us have witnessed the truth of Moore’s and House’s predictions. I remember when a computer filled a room and the floors were raised so that a cooling system could be installed underneath. Then, in the 1970s, the Personal Computer (PC) emerged and would fit on the top of our desks. But now, our hand held “smart” phones will fit in our pockets or purse and are nearly as powerful as a PC. The ramifications of this development has impacted every business or organization on the planet.
For example, I suggest the impact that these three (3) categories of software have had a profound impact on the following industries and our economy: Tax Preparation Software (TurboTax or HRBlock), Bookkeeping software (QuickBooks or Soft Books) and Word Processors (MS Word or Libre Office Writer). Without illustrating the details of the impact that each of these software programs have had, you would probably agree that the bookkeeping, professional accounting and publishing industries have been dramatically impacted.
This background serves as a backdrop for an article written for the Washington post by Vivek Wadhwa, entitled, These 6 new technology rules will govern our future. These rules will change society in the coming years. Three (3) of these rules resonated with me and may be helpful to the readers of The Training Shelf Newsletter. However, you should read the original article here.
Here are the three (3) rules I selected:
- Your job has a significant chance of being eliminated – Machines and robots are beginning to do the work of humans. When the progress of the industrial revolution occurred and manual production moved into factories, millions lost their livelihoods. New jobs were created, but not for the “under” skilled and was a terrifying time with significant societal dislocation.
- Anything that can be digitized, will be – We are now digitizing everything about our daily lives including our actions, words, thoughts and DNA. Cheap and ever present sensors are documenting everything we do and creating deep digital records of our entire lives.
- Your fate and destiny will be in your own hands as never before – The tools to help us retrain will be cheap or free through online learning in virtually any field using mobile devices. We will be able to execute sophisticated self-diagnoses and treat a significant percentage of health problems using only a smartphone and smart distributed software. You may also be able to have a small factory in your garage, and your neighbors may have one, too” says Vivek Wadhwa.
Depending on where you are along your career path and your field of specialization, these developments will profoundly impact your career plans.
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